Money policy
The RBI has stopped cutting. The next meeting is October.
Rates fell 1.25 points last year. They have sat at 5.25% through 2026. Cheaper money helps the car loan. It does not, by itself, raise grocery volumes or factory hiring.
RBI liquidity corridor
5.25% repo
Stance Neutral · last August 2026 · next October 2026
SDF 5.00%Repo 5.25%MSF 5.50%
- CRR
- 3.0%
- SLR
- 18.0%
- FY27 GDP (RBI)
- 6.7%
- FY27 CPI (RBI)
- 5.0%
2025–26
The cutting cycle, then the pause
Path reconstructed from the 125 bp 2025 easing to 5.25% (PIB / RBI) and the four consecutive 2026 holds.
Union Budget FY27
The fiscal companion
- Deficit target4.3% of GDP
- Capex, Apr–Jul₹4.5 lakh cr
- GST FYTD₹10.43 lakh cr (11%)
- — April–July deficit at 26.8% of the full-year number — ahead of a linear path.
- — Capex is the political choice: ₹4.5 lakh cr already, vs ₹3.5 lakh cr a year earlier.
- — Gross GST in August was import-led (+29% on import GST; domestic +9.3%).
Calendar
What prints next
- 1 Oct 2026
GST collections (September)
MoF
- Early Oct 2026
RBI MPC — fourth quarter of the pause?
Mumbai
- Mid Oct 2026
CPI & IIP (September)
MoSPI
- Nov 2026
GDP Q2 FY27 (Jul–Sep)
MoSPI
- Monthly
RBI forex reserves (Friday)
RBI WSS